Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 0.525034 0.609312 0.700030 0.804616 0.921525 1.047847 1.194316
2025-03-30 0.381195 0.486769 0.609023 0.759845 0.939621 1.145728 1.398490
2025-04-06 0.287647 0.403669 0.547874 0.737459 0.977055 1.266556 1.639233
2025-04-13 0.214253 0.331820 0.488929 0.708951 1.003175 1.376700 1.879496
2025-04-20 0.168623 0.287882 0.458848 0.712929 1.070729 1.545489 2.210047
2025-04-27 0.129631 0.245326 0.423689 0.705072 1.121903 1.698913 2.536866
2025-05-04 0.102484 0.215018 0.401313 0.712388 1.195376 1.890200 2.932973
2025-05-11 0.080182 0.187321 0.378042 0.714941 1.262353 2.079148 3.343197
2025-05-18 0.057912 0.153173 0.337194 0.682871 1.272443 2.186388 3.646222
2025-05-25 0.040254 0.122190 0.295051 0.641282 1.261646 2.260651 3.906657
2025-06-01 0.030041 0.103935 0.273031 0.631709 1.302615 2.418807 4.306702
2025-06-08 0.022097 0.087887 0.251633 0.619523 1.337292 2.569566 4.706403
2025-06-15 0.017541 0.079568 0.246264 0.640416 1.438145 2.845045 5.336710
2025-06-22 0.011917 0.064541 0.220836 0.615020 1.449777 2.970926 5.734082
2025-06-29 0.008399 0.054282 0.204236 0.605701 1.491425 3.153091 6.239470
2025-07-06 0.005661 0.044676 0.186073 0.589050 1.516165 3.307201 6.708478
2025-07-13 0.004199 0.039542 0.179356 0.598815 1.596950 3.570527 7.384302
2025-07-20 0.002934 0.033919 0.168971 0.597179 1.653083 3.792103 8.000635
2025-07-27 0.002145 0.030164 0.163584 0.607882 1.737986 4.075551 8.745857
2025-08-03 0.001515 0.026472 0.156907 0.613683 1.812448 4.344118 9.479605
2025-08-10 0.000886 0.021101 0.140775 0.588175 1.810058 4.458867 9.934581
2025-08-17 0.000461 0.016147 0.123237 0.553546 1.780356 4.514743 10.281001
2025-08-24 0.000274 0.013513 0.115034 0.546829 1.819384 4.716340 10.917844